Fuzzy Model for Estimating the Worsening of Pathologies Due to Delays in Treatment

Abstract

Based on accessible data such as the death registry, this work develops a methodology to provide an estimate of the number of patients and the level of aggravation of their pathologies due to delays in treatment. Firstly, for a given pathology, the deaths will be classified by the most common causes of death. The equivalent number of deceased patients can be obtained by adding this information through the Majority Ordered Weighted Average (MA-OWA). This aggregation will allow obtaining matrix C that indicates the incidence of delay in medical healthcare for each cause of death. Next, matrix L has been obtained, showing the nominal level for each type of patient whose pathology has been aggravated due to a delay in medical attention in each period. From matrices L and C, it is possible to obtain the matrix R that shows the fuzzy relationship between them. The worsening patients in a future period can be obtained from matrix L (obtained from matrix C of that future period and the previously calculated matrix R). Finally, an example illustrates the proposed theoretical model.